---
title: "Significance bands — adjacent ranks inside published error — Undominated"
canonical: https://undominated.ai/id/significance/
description: "93% of adjacent LMArena pairs on this catalogue fall inside published error (as of 2026-08-28). Bands, not a crisp #1."
---

# Significance bands — adjacent ranks inside published error — Undominated

> 93% of adjacent LMArena pairs on this catalogue fall inside published error (as of 2026-08-28). Bands, not a crisp #1.

# Significance bands

Adjacent ranks that the measurement cannot separate. The band is the object; the integer is a footnote. We do not invent a crisp #1.

As of 2026-08-28, **93%** of adjacent pairs on the LMArena (human-preference) board — 124 of 133 — fall inside the models’ own published 95% confidence intervals. Condition: standard-delivery rows with a measured CI half-width, CC BY 4.0 Arena data. 3 models share rank 1; there is no single separable top. Doubt the share? [Play the Blind Rank Test](/blind-rank/) on the same population.

 93% adjacent pairs inside published error
 64/134 distinct significance ranks / scored models
 3 joint first — no crisp #1

LMArena publishes per-model 95% CI half-widths (CC BY 4.0). Adjacent models are inseparable when their intervals overlap.

## Artificial Analysis board (evaluation only)

The live leaderboard still groups AA intelligence with a borrowed ±1.41 difference bound. On this catalogue that yields **93%** of adjacent pairs (124 of 133) inside the band, and 3 joint-first models — but Artificial Analysis redistribution is unresolved, so this figure is shown for evaluation, not as a redistributable claim.

| Sig. rank | Model | Elo | ± half-width |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Claude Opus 5 | 1504 | 4.8 |
| 1 | Claude Opus 4.6 | 1503 | 3.5 |
| 1 | Claude Fable 5 | 1495 | 5.2 |
| 3 | Gemini 3.7 Flash | 1490 | 8.1 |
| 3 | Claude Opus 4.7 | 1490 | 3.9 |
| 4 | Gemini 3.5 Flash | 1483 | 4.5 |
| 4 | Qwen3.8 Max | 1482 | 6.8 |
| 5 | Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview | 1480 | 3.3 |
| 5 | Muse Spark 1.1 | 1478 | 5.3 |
| 4 | GLM 5.3 | 1477 | 9.9 |
| 6 | Gemini 3.6 Flash | 1477 | 5.4 |
| 5 | Kimi K3 | 1476 | 5.8 |
| 9 | GPT-5.5 | 1471 | 3.9 |
| 9 | GPT-5.4 | 1470 | 3.9 |
| 12 | GLM 5.2 | 1465 | 4.8 |
| 12 | MiMo-V2.5-Pro | 1465 | 4.0 |
| 12 | GLM 5.1 | 1464 | 4.1 |
| 15 | Claude Opus 4.8 | 1461 | 4.4 |
| 15 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 | 1458 | 3.6 |
| 18 | Gemini 2.5 Pro | 1457 | 2.5 |
| 16 | Qwen3.7 Plus | 1456 | 4.7 |
| 18 | Kimi K2.6 | 1455 | 4.5 |
| 18 | GPT-5.6 Sol | 1454 | 5.4 |
| 18 | Grok 4.5 | 1452 | 5.2 |
| 21 | Claude Opus 4.5 | 1450 | 3.2 |
| 20 | Qwen3.6 Max Preview | 1446 | 8.3 |
| 22 | GPT-5.6 Terra | 1446 | 5.3 |
| 24 | Kimi K2.5 | 1445 | 3.3 |
| 23 | GLM 5 | 1445 | 4.3 |
| 21 | Grok 4.6 | 1444 | 10.1 |
| 24 | Claude Sonnet 5 | 1442 | 4.9 |
| 23 | Gemma 4 31B | 1442 | 7.5 |
| 26 | GPT-5.1 | 1441 | 3.7 |
| 23 | Hy3 | 1441 | 8.1 |
| 22 | Qwen3.8 27B | 1441 | 10.5 |
| 26 | GLM 4.6 | 1440 | 3.9 |
| 23 | DeepSeek V4 Pro 0423 | 1439 | 9.8 |
| 26 | Inkling | 1439 | 5.4 |
| 27 | Qwen3.5 397B A17B | 1438 | 3.4 |
| 28 | Claude Sonnet 4.5 | 1438 | 2.9 |
| 27 | Qwen3.6 Plus | 1437 | 4.2 |
| 26 | GLM 5V Turbo | 1437 | 6.7 |
| 26 | Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite | 1437 | 5.5 |
| 27 | GLM 4.7 | 1435 | 6.0 |
| 29 | MiniMax M3 | 1435 | 4.5 |
| 26 | Gemma 4 26B A4B | 1435 | 7.6 |
| 33 | DeepSeek V4 Flash 0423 | 1432 | 4.1 |
| 35 | GLM 4.5 | 1429 | 4.9 |